Air Travel Demand Between US and Canada Declines Sharply
- Airlines Companies Leisure travel World
Global Business Magazine- 4 minutes read
Airline capacity between Canada and the US has been reduced through to October 2025, with the most significant cuts occurring during the peak travel months of July and August, according to data published by the travel data company OAG.
The forward bookings between Canada and the US have fallen by as much as 75% in the next few months compared with the same period last year.
The latest weekly update of OAG schedules data suggested that airline capacity between Canada and the US remains broadly unchanged for the summer season. However, a closer look at recent weeks reveals a downward trend in airline capacity and a sharp decline in forward bookings.
Comparing the total number of scheduled one-way seats between the two countries filed on March 3 and those filed on March 24, the data showed that over 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the two countries through to the end of October this year.
The most noticeable cuts were in July and August – the two peak summer season months – where airlines have cut capacity by some 3.5%.
For all scheduled airlines operating between the US and Canada, any fall in consumer confidence and subsequent changes to planned travel are a concern, especially in such a large market and when taking place at such short notice, OAG said.
Unfortunately, the law of unintended consequences is once again impacting the airline industry adding to what had already become a softening market.
For those that are still planning to travel there may be some airlines offering particularly cheap airfares over the next few months as they seek to stimulate demand but for the airlines, it will be a nervous few months, especially as the traditional “snowbird” market from Canada to the US could be badly impacted next year if the situation doesn’t improve quickly, the OAG report said.
In fact, the data essentially confirmed what Leger’s research indicated in February: “Nearly half of Canadian travellers (48%) say they are less likely to visit the US in 2025 compared to last year.”
Airlines Monitoring Developments
Air Transat, Canada’s third-largest airline, is so far the only Canadian airline that has announced its most recent results, with the carrier’s Q1 of 2024-2025 ending on January 31 indicating that it was still closely monitoring the trans-border situation.
While the airline does not have a lot of exposure to the US market, serving only two airports down south in April – Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) and Orlando International Airport (MCO) – it is still monitoring whether passengers are more likely to make last-minute bookings based on the economic environment.
Air Transat’s president and CEO Annick Guerard said that the airline was “closely monitoring the situation as it evolves” as the industry entered a strong booking period for the summer season, which begins on March 30.
WestJet CEO Alexis von Hoensbroech told Canada-based CTV News that since the tariffs were announced by the US President Donald Trump, the airline has seen a very significant drop in bookings from Canada to the US.
