Inbound Travel to US Likely to Drop by 6.3% in 2025

Inbound travel to the US is projected to decline for the first time since 2020, dropping 6.3% dip in international visits, particularly those from Canada, contributing to the overall reduction the US Travel Association (USTA) said. 

This is a stark contrast to the earlier forecast that predicted a rise in international travel and spending, reaching pre-pandemic levels by 2026. With the potential recovery now forecast for 2029, the tourism sector faces new challenges as it seeks to regain momentum, USTA said.

In its latest report, USTA predicted that inbound international visits to the US were forecast to drop to 67.9 million in 2025, which is approximately 85% of the travel levels seen in 2019. Though a steady recovery was expected following the pandemic, the international visitation would surpass 2019 figures by 2026.

However, this decline has dampened the travel industry’s outlook, especially given the earlier anticipation of an 8.8% growth to 78.8 million international visits, USTA said.

While the decrease is attributed mainly to fewer travellers from Canada, the report revealed a broader slowdown in growth from other key international markets.

Economic uncertainty, changes in visa policies, and a prevailing negative sentiment towards the US have all contributed to the downturn. With this development, it is now expected that full recovery will not take place until 2029, when international visits are predicted to reach 81.9 million.

Spending Declines

The report also said that in addition to the drop in international visits, financial impact of this trend was also significant and the US travel spending is projected to see a slight increase of just 1.1% in 2025, totalling $1.35 trillion. While this is still growth, it is markedly slower compared to previous years, reflecting the overall weakening of international tourism.

Even the decline in spending by international visitors is likely to fall by 3.2% to $173 billion. This reduction in visitor expenditure comes at a time when many economies are recovering from the pandemic, placing the US in a unique position among major travel destinations.

According to a report from the World Travel & Tourism Council, the US stands as the only major economy expected to experience a decline in international visitor spending for 2025.

Reasons for Decline

In a report, Travel and Tour World said that several factors were influencing the decline in inbound travel to the US and they include political tensions, especially those related to past trade tariffs and visa regulations, leading to growing frustrations among international travellers.

Another study from Longwoods International reveals that around 20% of Canadian travellers have cancelled or avoided their plans to visit the US. in light of ongoing policy shifts and safety concerns. This comes after previous rhetoric by the U.S. government that may have alienated key international partners.

Visa Issues and Safety Concerns

The report further said that among the top concerns cited by international travellers are the rising visa fees, longer processing times, and overall difficulties obtaining travel documents.

Travellers from countries such as China, India, and Europe, have expressed frustration with the bureaucratic hurdles they face in securing US visas. Moreover, safety concerns, whether tied to perceived political instability or issues like gun violence, continue to contribute to negative perceptions of traveling to the US.