OPEC+ Countries to Raise Output Again in October

The eight OPEC+ countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – which met virtually on Sunday to review global market conditions and outlook, have decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day (BPD) from the 1.65 million BPD additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023.

The decision was taken in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, the eight participating countries said.

This adjustment will be implemented in October 2025. The 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner.

The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to pause or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023.

These OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.

These eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).

They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. The eight countries will hold their next meeting on 5 October 2025.

Crude Exports Fall

According to Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), the crude exports slipped to a three-month low of 17.13 million BPD in August, down 754,000 BPD from June’s peak, even as OPEC+ has been ramping production.

Regional OPEC+ quotas have risen by a cumulative 1.45 million BPD since August last year, but actual exports increased by only 471,000 BPD, topping out at 17.89 million BPD in June, MEES said, citing data from Kpler, the leading provider of technology-led data, analytics, and market insights focused on the energy and shipping markets.

The August drop was driven in part by higher summer oil burn, but a bigger story is the pivot toward refined products. While crude shipments have fallen over the past two months, refined product exports from the region surged to a record 5.32 million BPD in August, the Kpler data showed.