
Airbus and Boeing Face Challenges in Stepping Up Production
Two major aircraft manufacturers – Boeing and Airbus – are facing an uphill task to increase production as rapidly as they like for a multitude of reasons as they delivered 348 and 766 aircraft respectively across their commercial jet programmes, including a handful of aircraft for non-commercial roles last year.
According to Cirium Ascend Consultancy, there continues to be much talk about commercial aircraft deficits, and as explained before, in reality these amount to a deficit of new aircraft. For 2025, Airbus has said that it plans to deliver 820 aircraft while Boeing did not make any official announcement but Cirium has a working estimate of 610 aircraft.
At the end of Q1-2025, Cirium’s fleet data showed that Airbus delivered 135 aircraft. This included 69 for March including 18 A320s, 33 A321s, 10 A220s, two A330-900s and six A350-900s.
“Looking at data for the past 15 years, Airbus has averaged 20% of total annual deliveries in the first quarter. Hence, this cumulative 134 Q1 total suggests a 2025 annual total of 660, significantly short of the 820 target,” Cirium said.
However, Airbus made it clear in February this year that one should expect lower deliveries in the early part of the year due to a relative shortage of engine deliveries, particularly CFM Leap for the A320 family.
Cirium data indicates that Airbus currently has 43 A320 family aircraft which have flown but not yet been delivered, whilst further research suggests there are at least 70 which have been rolled out of the respective final assembly lines but which have not yet flown. These include 43 aircraft which the data indicates will be powered by Leap engines when finally delivered.
Potential to Increase
Hence, Airbus has the potential to increase delivery rates in the second quarter (and beyond) as they work through these aircraft.
Cirium also said that there are also signs of increasing A320 production pace again, with 53 first flights detected in March (compared with 42 in February and only 38 in January; as an aside there were also three on 1 April), perhaps headed back towards the average close to 60 seen in the final quarter of 2024.
Since Airbus stated an expectation of 820 deliveries this year only a few weeks ago, it seems likely that this slow progress was already expected and at present there is no reason to doubt that number.
Over at Boeing, Cirium estimates 41 deliveries in March including 33 737 Max, four 787s and four 777-200LRFs, taking the Q1 total to 130. The US OEM has historically delivered 24.5% of annual deliveries in the first quarter and hence there is an indication of 530 total, again relatively short of our 610 expectation for the year.
“However, we know that Boeing is working through a ramp-up on the 737 line and first flight data indicates 27 aircraft built in March, up from an average of 23 in the first two months of the year and as few as 10 in November 2024. Expectations of achieving the FAA-imposed cap of 38 per month by mid-year seem reasonable,” Cirium said.
Boeing’s deliveries are also being augmented by inventory aircraft. In 2025 to date almost 25% of 737 Max deliveries have been aircraft that flew more than 90 days prior to delivery.
Although the pace of delivery of such aircraft seems to have slowed in March, with only four amongst the 33 total, there are still some 34 737-8s in inventory which seem likely to be delivered this year.
If 737-7 deliveries could begin in 2025 (post-certification) then there are a further 28 are ready for deliveries. The upside opportunity is completed with the 787 programme, where Cirium data indicates 25 aircraft flown prior to 2025 yet to be delivered (including 13 specifically for Lufthansa which are delayed by seat supply issues).