globalbizmag.com
Global Passenger Aircraft Deliveries to be Over $100 Billion in 2024
Asian airlines, led by China, will lead the way in the annual passenger aircraft deliveries across the world which are set to cross $100 billion in 2024, according to the UK-based Cirium, the world’s most trusted provider of aviation analytics.
Asia-Pacific remains the key growth region for new deliveries, driven by China. The country is forecast to have the highest annual passenger traffic growth rate at 8% and account for 19% of share of global deliveries in 2041, ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries, with a combined share of 24%, Cirium said in its 2023-2042 Cirium Fleet Forecast (CFF).
Cirium also said that 45,200 new passenger aircraft will be delivered at an estimated value of $3.2 trillion. The CFF 2023-2042 is an independent outlook by Ascend Consultancy of the global passenger and freighter market for the next 20 years.
The forecast, which enters its 11th year of publication, also predicted that freight capacity will grow 4.1% annually compared with 2022, and that 3,590 freighter aircraft will be supplied over the next 20 years, including 1,060 new build aircraft and 2,530 conversions from passenger aircraft.
Airbus and Boeing will continue to dominate the commercial aircraft manufacturing space, with a combined delivery projection of 89% of all aircraft through to 2042.
Rob Morris, Head of Consultancy, at Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said that with global traffic almost back to 2019 levels, the increased levels of order activity in 2023 shows that the airline industry’s new growth cycle is gaining momentum.
“The global passenger fleet will be required to increase by around 22,000 aircraft to service passenger traffic, which we predict to grow 3.6% annually to reach 47,700 aircraft by the end of 2041,” Morris added.
North American and European airlines are projected to account for 21% and 17% of deliveries respectively. Middle East airlines will take 7% of deliveries, accounting for 14% in value terms due to the rich mix of higher-value twin-aisle deliveries.
Boeing’s Outlook for Middle East
Boeing forecasts wide-body airplanes will comprise 45% of deliveries to Middle East airlines over the next 20 years ─ the highest percentage of the 10 global regions featured in Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) forecast.
The region’s fleet of dedicated freighters is projected to more than double to 180 jets by 2042, according to the CMO, Boeing’s annual long-term forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and services.
Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president, Commercial Marketing, said that airlines in the Middle East have increasingly expanded their influence and reach, transforming the region into an international air transit hub.
“Air travel and cargo demand continue to gain momentum, driven by significant economic growth and national development plans. As airlines in the region will require efficient and versatile fleet solutions, Boeing products will be ready to meet market demands,” he added.
The CMO projects delivery of 3,025 new commercial airplanes in the Middle East by 2042, including 1,350 wide-bodies. Many airlines in the region provide service between major population centres in Asia, Africa and Europe via growing hubs that offer efficient connectivity. As a result, a higher proportion of wide-body aircraft are needed to carry larger passenger volumes.
The Middle East single-aisle fleet is also expected to more than double as low-cost carriers (LCC) and short-haul networks continue to develop and expand. By 2042, nearly half of the region’s aircraft will be single-aisle jets.
