OPEC+ to Step Up Oil Production from April 1

With sanctions on Russia and Iran expected to continue for some more time, world oil market will have additional supplies beginning Tuesday as the eight-member Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) have agreed to gradually unwind their voluntary crude oil production cuts to meet the oil demand.

It may be recalled that the US President Donald Trump has issued an executive order last month to apply “maximum pressure on Iran,” including an effort to reduce the country’s oil exports to zero. This strategy could open a supply gap that OPEC+ members might be positioned to fill.

According to OPEC+, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman will reverse a collective reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day (MBL) over an 18-month period, concluding in September 2026.

OPEC+ said that taking into account the healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook, the eight members have re-affirmed their decision agreed upon on 5 December 2024, to proceed with a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 MBD voluntary adjustments starting on 1 April 2025, while remaining adaptable to evolving conditions.

“Accordingly, this gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” OPEC said.

UAE Gains

As part of the agreement, the UAE will benefit from a 300,000 barrels per day (BPD) increase in its production target across the same period.

Under the proposed schedule, the combined production targets for the eight countries will see a rise of 10.5% increase relative to the group’s agreed levels at the 38^th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM), with Saudi Arabia and the UAE set for larger increases of 16% and 20%, respectively.

OPEC+ said that the decision reflects healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook, and emphasised that any return of curtailed production would remain gradual and flexible and adaptable to evolving conditions.

“Accordingly, this gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” OPEC+ said.

The latest plan marks a shift in policy after a series of significant output reductions. Since late 2022, OPEC+ has implemented deep production cuts, including a voluntary 2.2 MBD reduction agreed in November 2023 for the first quarter of 2024. These cuts were subsequently extended through to the end of 2024 and further to March 2025.

OPEC+ has also authorised a gradual increase in Iraq’s oil quota starting in April 2025, enabling the country to reach 4.11 MBD by January 2026, amid strategic developments marked by the imminent reopening of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.